"In conclusion, PMI survey data on input prices and prices charged in the manufacturing and services industries provide a timely and useful insight into producer price developments, particularly in the case of services, where official producer price statistics are not yet available."
Monthly Bulletin
European Central Bank
"NTC surveys stand out as being the most timely of the surveys available to the Bank [of England]..., such information is the lifeblood of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee."
Secretary
The Bank of England
"Some of the hard data in the economies have not been that good, but the PMI projecting a reacceleration of growth will add to the case for another hike. And the PMI is an indicator that the ECB looks at closely."
Economist
Bank of America
"There are a huge number of monthly indicators we use to try to predict ECB rate changes... we found the whole-economy PMI (the weighted average of the manufacturing and services indices) was the best leading indicator of ECB rate decisions."
Economist
ABN AMRO
"the [NTC-produced eurozone PMI is the] best coincident indicator of economic activity in the eurozone"
Data commentary newsletter
Barclays Capital
"Survey data such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), are an important part of the ECB’s economic analysis. This reflects their close historic correlation with economic growth and the lack of reliable and timely hard data for the euro area. The manufacturing PMI is a much better guide to ECB rate decisions than headline inflation."
Senior European Economist
Alliance Bernstein
"Hawkish news were also seen on the price side, with both input and output prices up in the composite PMI – something that the ECB will probably keep a close eye on, given their concerns that high capacity utilisation could now fuel price pressures."
Economist
Lehman Brothers
"Our favourite high-frequency indicator is the PMI..."
Head of Western European Economic Research
JP Morgan Chase
"The PMI is one of the most timely activity indicators available in the UK."
Senior European Economist
Alliance Bernstein
"...we look at the relationship between mature official estimates and the activity and orders balances of the main business surveys for the services and manufacturing sectors…..tests indicated that, for both the services and manufacturing output, the most robust models include solely the corresponding CIPS surveys’ [UK PMI] activity balance."
Quarterly Bulletin
Bank of England
"Papers released by the Treasury select committee yesterday revealed the extent of concern within the Bank [of England] about the performance at the Office for National Statistics.
Cuts in the quality of data collection, with across-the-board cuts in survey sample sizes, have alarmed its economists and the monetary policy committee, making sensitive interest rate decisions more difficult.
In response, the Bank set up an internal "data uncertainty" project two years ago. Already, it bases its near-term inflation and growth forecasts as much on private sector data, such as the service sector purchasing managers' index, as on official statistics."
Economics Editor
Financial Times
"The Committee (MPC) places relatively little weight on official estimates of services output at the Preliminary GDP release stage, placing more emphasis on (PMI) survey-based estimates."
UK Economics Research
Barclays Capital
"The PMI surveys, our favourite indicator for tracking growth momentum,..."
Head of Western European Economic Research
JP Morgan Chase
"For growth tracking, we would focus on the PMI, which is now published in a very timely manner."
Economic Research
JP Morgan
"The composite PMI index unexpectedly moved up a bit in February, from 57.5 to 57.7 (JPMorgan: 57.1; consensus: 57.3). This indicator, the best available monthly gauge of growth momentum in the Euro area, indicates that GDP growth was running at about 2.5-3.0%q/q saar early this year..."
Data Watch Update
JP Morgan
"On the pace of manufacturing output growth, a deceleration appears to be underway from the strong 5% pace of the mid quarters of last year to closer to a 3% pace during the current quarter. Note that there is a mismatch between the manufacturing PMI (strong) and the official IP data (soft) for the first two months of 4Q, making it hard to map exactly the meaning of today's PMI onto some IP figures for 1Q. That said, we are inclined to look at the PMI as a better indicator of the underlying trend."
Senior European Economist
JP Morgan
"“(PMI) Survey data from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) provide an important additional source of intelligence."
Speech by MPC Member, Tim Besley